ERA updates 2019 & 2020 rental forecasts

By Murray Pollok22 May 2019

The European Rental Association (ERA) said Europe’s rental industry will benefit from resilient construction markets in 2019 and 2020, despite a general weakening of the region’s economy over the same period.

ERA and its consultant, IHS Markit, are forecasting European construction growrth of 4.1% this year followed by 4.7% in 2020. 

“Construction is holding up, which is good news for rental”, said Michel Petitjean, secretary general of the ERA, who presented the updated forecasts at the association’s annual convention in Madrid on 15 May.

Petitjean-Pic

ERA’s Michel Petitjean speaking in Madrid.

Germany and Poland are the two rental markets to see an upward shift in growth prospects. Germany is now expected to see average annual growth this year and next of more than 4.8% - compared to around 3.7% in ERA’s previous estimate - while Poland will see average annual growth rising to almost 8%, an increase from the estimated 6.2% in the previous estimate last year.

ERA’s forecasts for France and the UK – 3.5% and 2.2%, respectively – have not greatly changed, with the UK forecast to see a “solid” recovery in 2020. The rental growth forecast for Italy has declined from almost 4% to less than 3%.

Overall in Europe, ERA and its consultant IHS Markit are forecasting average annual rental growth of 4.8% in 2019 and 2020.

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